Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Air Products: Leadership Transition Underway Will the Activist Playbook Improve Margins and De-Risk Hydrogen Expansion?
Air Products delivered a solid Q1 FY25, with adjusted EPS of $2.86 beating estimates and landing at the high end of guidance, underscoring pricing resilience and operational efficiency, though revenue of $2.93B missed expectations. Adjusted EBITDA grew 1% YoY, with margin expansion of 140bps, driven by strong Americas performance (+6% EBITDA growth) and asset contributions in Asia (+7%), though Europe (-5% volume) and Middle East/India remained pressured. The activist-driven leadership transition saw Mantle Ridge secure three board seats, with CEO Seifi Ghasemi expected to step down following a new president appointment by March 31. The activist shift signals a renewed focus on capital discipline and risk mitigation in hydrogen investments, aiming to de-risk Air Products' $4.5B-$5B CapEx roadmap. Uzbekistan’s ramp-up in H2 FY25, ongoing pricing actions, and increasing Jazan equity income should drive sequential improvement, setting the stage for FY26 free cash flow acceleration. While shares have surged 50% over the past year, activist-driven governance changes could further unlock value if execution aligns with expectations. The key question: Can the new leadership team execute on capital discipline and margin expansion while mitigating risks in hydrogen investments, ensuring sustainable long-term growth?
