Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
AppLovin’s Best Product Yet—E-commerce Expansion Sets the Stage for AI-Powered Advertising Leadership: What’s the Impact, Outlook, & Key Catalysts ?
AppLovin delivered an exceptional Q3, with revenue surging 39% YoY to $1.2B, exceeding expectations by $66.78M. The Software Platform segment grew 66% YoY to $835M, achieving a 78% adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted EBITDA rose 72% YoY to $722M (60% margin), while adjusted EPS of $1.47 beat estimates by $0.24. Free cash flow reached $545M (+182% YoY), demonstrating strong operating leverage and effective cost control. Results were driven by AXON advancements, operational efficiencies, and a renewed Google Cloud contract, reflecting AppLovin’s execution strength. The company’s gaming business is projected to grow 20%-30% YoY, supported by AXON’s technical enhancements. Emerging growth in e-commerce, with a self-service platform launch planned for 2025, represents a high-potential catalyst, enabling global scalability and diversification. Near-term investments in data centers and PSU-related costs may weigh slightly on margins, but these strategic moves position AppLovin for sustained growth. Guidance for Q4 projects revenue of $1.24-$1.26B and adjusted EBITDA of $740-$760M, indicating consistent execution despite macro headwinds. With its leadership in gaming and strides in AI-powered e-commerce, AppLovin is poised to unlock new markets and deliver shareholder value. The key question: Can AppLovin effectively scale its e-commerce initiatives to complement gaming dominance and sustain its premium valuation amid rising competition?
