Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Estée Lauder Companies (EL): Assessing TURNAROUND Hopes— Our Thesis on Challenges, 5 Key Strategic Drivers, Earnings Outlook, DCF, Valuation, Peer Comps & Growth Risks/Uncertainty-Followup Initiation
Estée Lauder’s Q2 beat expectations, but persistent headwinds in China, Asia travel retail, and skincare sales erosion continue to weigh on the long-term outlook. While makeup and fragrance categories showed resilience, with Jo Malone and Tom Ford leading growth, skincare—a core 50% of sales—remains structurally pressured as La Mer and Estée Lauder underperform. The company’s expanded restructuring plan, including up to 7,000 job cuts, a full portfolio review with Evercore, and an emerging markets push led by India, aims to streamline operations and revitalize growth. However, skepticism remains high, as these efforts build on prior turnaround attempts that failed to stabilize market share. Leadership transition marks a pivotal shift, but new CEO Stéphane de La Faverie’s deep ties to EL’s China-heavy strategy raise concerns about whether meaningful change can be executed. With fourth-quarter sales projected to decline 10%-12% and annual skincare growth downgraded to 4% from 7%, EL faces mounting execution risks. The core question: Can EL’s restructuring efforts restore pricing power and market share, or will persistent execution missteps and digital lag leave the company struggling against L’Oréal and indie disruptors?
