Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX): Is KNX’s Path to a Margin Recovery Becoming Clearer as LTL Integration Challenges Ease?

$50.00 or $120.00 / year

Knight-Swift’s Q4 2024 results indicate early traction in a freight market recovery, with adjusted EPS of $0.36 beating by $0.03 and GAAP EPS of $0.43 exceeding forecasts by $0.16, despite a slight revenue miss at $1.86B. Adjusted OR improved 350 bps YoY to 93.7%, driven by cost synergies and network efficiencies, reinforcing KNX’s disciplined execution. Truckload revenue declined 4.4% YoY, impacted by softer miles (-3.7%) and rate pressure (-0.7%), though utilization gains (+2.4% miles per tractor) and mid-single-digit contractual rate tailwinds in 2025 support further margin progression. LTL revenue surged 20.2% YoY, with shipment growth (+13.3%) and pricing strength (+9.6%), though adjusted OR of 94.5% reflects near-term dilution from network expansion and DHE integration. Logistics showed sequential inflection (+34.6% QoQ adj. op income), with spot rate strength supporting profitability. Management anticipates sequential earnings acceleration in 2025, with Truckload pricing stabilizing, LTL density improving, and Intermodal achieving profitability by mid-year. While near-term freight softness persists, tightening TL capacity and operational leverage in LTL provide incremental upside. Can Knight-Swift sustain its improving margin trajectory and capitalize on bid season pricing momentum as network synergies take hold in 2025?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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