Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Ross Stores (ROST): Margin Gains But Optimism Overbaked—Will Operational Gains Be Enough to Offset Lagging Comps? Impact, Outlook & its 5 Key Strategic Catalysts!
Ross Stores (ROST) delivered solid Q3 FY24 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.48 (+11% YoY) beating expectations by $0.08 and operating margin expanding by 75 bps to 11.9%, driven by lower freight, distribution, and incentive costs. Revenue of $5.07 billion (+4% YoY) missed by $75.26 million, with comparable sales up 1% amid weather disruptions and merchandising challenges in women’s apparel. Accessories, cosmetics, and children’s categories outperformed, while dd’s DISCOUNTS exceeded Ross comps, highlighting strong resonance with its value-focused customer base. Inventory rose 9% YoY, reflecting prudent management as discretionary spending remains pressured. Q4 guidance projects 2%-3% comp growth and operating margins of 11.2%-11.5% (down YoY due to branded merchandise headwinds), with full-year EPS forecast at $6.10-$6.17 (+10%-11% YoY). Despite structural resilience and progress on holiday categories, top-line deceleration and underwhelming comps highlight near-term challenges. While profitability supports Ross’s off-price model, risks from soft consumer demand and execution issues may temper upside. Shares appear overvalued post-earnings rally, with future catalysts hinging on dd’s growth and holiday sell-through. Can Ross Stores maintain its margin momentum and improve merchandising execution to offset lagging comps and sustain shareholder value in a challenging retail environment?
