Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Amcor: Synergy Potential Meets Valuation Reality—Can the Berry Merger and Earnings Recovery Reshape Long-Term Growth?
Amcor’s proposed all-scrip merger with Berry is strategically sound, offering USD 650M in annual cost efficiencies and synergies by FY2028, mirroring success with the Bemis acquisition. Half of the savings are expected from improved resin procurement, leveraging combined volumes and supplier relationships, while G&A reductions, operational efficiencies, and $60M in revenue synergies add further value. Projected one-time working capital improvements of $280M aim to drive annual free cash flow over $3B, supporting reinvestment, deleveraging, and dividend growth. Berry’s complementary offerings and strong market share reinforce the merger rationale, but integration risks and execution timelines require careful management. Amcor’s Q1 FY2025 results showed adjusted EBIT of AUD 365M (+2% YoY), driven by growth in flexibles and rigids packaging and 50-basis-point margin expansion from cost improvements. While healthcare sales are poised to recover, North American beverages remain weak, with improvement likely by FY2026 as inflation eases. Shares trade at 12.58x NTM P/E, below Australian FMCG peers, suggesting undervaluation. With a USD 0.13 interim dividend, shareholder returns remain a priority. The strategic question is: can Amcor effectively execute the Berry merger and capitalize on earnings recovery to drive sustained long-term growth and competitive advantage?
