Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Mattel (MAT): Continues To Harvest Gains from Its Turnaround— But Can Improved Mix & Cost Cutting Measures Really Catalyze Growth?
Mattel's Q3 2024 results reflect disciplined execution and strategic investments, with revenue of $1.84B, missing expectations by $17.24M, primarily due to Barbie movie-related headwinds. However, the company saw a 210-basis-point improvement in adjusted gross margin to 53.1%, driven by supply chain efficiencies and cost deflation from its Optimizing for Profitable Growth (OPG) program. Adjusted EPS of $1.14 exceeded estimates, growing 6% YoY, while trailing twelve-month free cash flow surged 49%, signaling operational resilience. Key brands like Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price saw growth, while digital gaming and upcoming entertainment initiatives diversify revenue streams. However, Dolls and Infant, Toddler & Preschool experienced declines, mainly due to lapping the Barbie movie boost and strategic product exits. Despite near-term margin pressures from cost inflation and elevated marketing spend, Mattel remains confident in long-term growth, supported by a diversified supply chain and strong brand portfolio. The company expects a strong holiday season and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, with a robust pipeline of innovation and cost-saving initiatives. With a return to positive growth expected in late 2024, Mattel’s long-term prospects remain strong. Can Mattel maintain growth momentum by leveraging its improved product mix and ongoing cost-cutting efforts to overcome near-term headwinds?
