Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Darling Ingredients (DAR): SAF Ramp-Up and Regulatory Clarity—Will These Catalysts Drive Record Earnings in 2025- What’s the impact, outlook & its 5 Key Catalysts?
Darling Ingredients (DAR) delivered mixed Q3 2024 results, with revenue of $1.42B (-$56.82M vs. estimates) and adjusted EBITDA of $236.7M reflecting resilience amid pressures from sluggish renewable diesel (RD) margins and subdued fat prices. While net income of $16.9M (-86.5% YoY) highlighted transitory challenges, the company’s robust cash generation, as evidenced by $111.2M in dividends from Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) and $192M in debt reduction, underscores operational discipline. Darling’s SAF ramp-up, supported by its mechanically complete SAF facility and a first delivery milestone to Avfuel, positions the company to capture $1–$3/gal SAF margin premiums and expand its renewable energy leadership in 2025. Near-term tailwinds include improving fat prices, regulatory clarity on the 45Z tax credit and California LCFS, and scaling SAF volumes, which together underpin management’s $1.5B 2025 EBITDA target. However, risks remain from feedstock volatility, delayed regulatory guidance, and competitive RD pressures. Long-term, Darling’s vertically integrated model, global feedstock leadership, and specialty product innovation, such as Nextida collagen solutions, enhance its ability to capitalize on sustainability trends. With improving macro tailwinds and a strong position in the energy transition, will Darling successfully mitigate near-term risks to achieve its record-breaking growth ambitions in 2025?
