Linde (LIN): Resilient On-Site Model Amid EMEA and China Weakness But for its $10 Billion Clean Energy Backlog – What’s the impact, outlook & its key catalysts

$50.00 or $120.00 / year

Linde’s Q3 2024 results showcased operational resilience and disciplined execution, with operating margins reaching a record 29.6% (+130 bps YoY) and adjusted EPS rising 9% YoY to $3.94, exceeding expectations by $0.03. Revenue of $8.36B also surpassed forecasts, driven by higher pricing and productivity improvements despite flat volumes. North America led growth, contributing 40% of sales with strength in on-site and merchant volumes, while EMEA and APAC, particularly China, faced industrial demand softness due to geopolitical and economic challenges. Consumer-focused markets such as healthcare and food & beverage, along with +9% YoY electronics growth, offset industrial weakness. Linde’s $10 billion project backlog, anchored by the $2 billion Dow blue hydrogen and CO₂ capture initiative, reflects its strategic alignment with energy transition trends, providing visibility into multi-year growth. However, weaker full-year EPS guidance of $15.40-$15.50 signals near-term pressures from deteriorating conditions in EMEA and China. With three-fourths of sales tied to resilient on-site and consumer end markets, and a robust backlog supporting long-term growth, Linde remains well-positioned despite macro headwinds. Can Linde leverage its clean energy projects and strong competitive positioning to sustain long-term growth while navigating persistent industrial demand challenges in key regions?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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