Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Carrier Global (CARR):With Transformation Nearly Complete, Can Core HVAC Focus Drive Durable Growth and Deliver Desired Margin Acceleration?
Carrier Global (CARR) reported a solid Q3 2024, with revenue of $5.98 billion (+21% YoY), driven by strong commercial HVAC performance and the Viessmann acquisition, although adjusted EPS of $0.77 slightly missed expectations. The company achieved 4% organic growth and a 17% contribution from Viessmann, while maintaining strong operating margins (+120 bps YoY). Commercial HVAC outperformed, benefiting from structural tailwinds in data centers, decarbonization infrastructure, and large-scale projects, while residential HVAC also showed resilience. Viessmann’s integration exceeded expectations, with early synergies and product cross-pollination opportunities. Carrier’s strategic pivot toward intelligent energy solutions, connected devices, and digital platforms aligns well with sustainability trends, positioning the company for long-term growth. However, challenges remain in specific markets like residential and light commercial HVAC in Europe and China, alongside continued pressure in truck and trailer markets. Carrier reaffirmed its 2024 guidance, projecting 3% organic growth and $2.50 in adjusted EPS, with double-digit growth expected in 2025. Despite the transformation and portfolio simplification, the stock appears overvalued given optimistic market expectations for long-term growth and margin expansion. Can Carrier’s renewed focus on core HVAC drive sustainable, margin-accretive growth through operational efficiencies and macro tailwinds, or will external market pressures hinder its progress?
