Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Price Sustainability and Supply Disruptions—Can 5 Key Catalysts Shape Its Future Outlook and Drive LT Resilience?
Alcoa Corporation concluded 2024 with strong operational and financial performance, delivering Q4 revenue of $3.49 billion, a 20% sequential increase, surpassing estimates by $34.39 million. Growth was primarily driven by a 45% rise in third-party alumina revenue and a 5% increase in aluminum sales, supported by favorable pricing dynamics. Adjusted EBITDA expanded by $222 million to $677 million, highlighting Alcoa’s ability to capitalize on market tailwinds while maintaining cost discipline. Adjusted EPS of $1.04 exceeded expectations by $0.03, though GAAP EPS of $0.76 fell short by $0.18. The Alumina segment led profitability, contributing a $349 million EBITDA improvement, driven by record-high prices, although aluminum margins remained pressured by elevated input costs. Management’s strategic focus on operational excellence and portfolio optimization resulted in $675 million in cost savings, exceeding initial targets. Looking to 2025, Alcoa projects stable shipment volumes and disciplined CapEx allocation of $700 million, emphasizing sustaining investments and energy initiatives. The planned Ma’aden JV divestiture could unlock capital for growth initiatives, while challenges such as alumina price volatility, Chinese capacity competition, and potential U.S. tariffs pose risks. Can Alcoa’s strategic deleveraging efforts, operational improvements, and market positioning drive long-term resilience amid evolving macroeconomic uncertainties?
