Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
American Express (AXP): Unlocking Millennial and Gen Z Momentum – Will Demographics & Elevated Pricing Drive Double-Digit Revenue Expansion Over The Coming 3 years?
American Express (AXP) delivered a solid FY24 performance, with adjusted EPS of $3.49 in Q3 beating estimates by $0.20, supported by disciplined cost management and strong net card fee growth (+18% YoY). Revenue reached $16.64B (+8% YoY), though falling short of estimates by $22.05M, as commercial card spending (+1%) remained tepid amid broader macro pressures. Key growth drivers included 13M new card acquisitions and expanding Millennial/Gen Z engagement, now contributing one-third of U.S. billings with 12% YoY spending growth. International revenue grew 13% YoY for the fifth consecutive quarter, highlighting underpenetrated global markets as a long-term opportunity despite cultural lending differences. Operating expenses grew slower than revenue, enabling margin resilience and scalability, while refreshed products and price increases (e.g., U.S. Gold Card) drove 25 consecutive quarters of 10%+ fee revenue growth. However, T&E spending normalization (6-7%) and a 3% YTD decline in small business spend signal near-term constraints. With management reaffirming mid-teens EPS growth guidance and deposit-driven funding costs improving profitability, AXP remains well-positioned for sustainable gains. Yet, competitive pressures and economic uncertainty could weigh on achieving 10%+ revenue growth. Can AXP leverage its demographic tailwinds and elevated pricing power to maintain premium growth in an increasingly competitive landscape?
