Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Autodesk (ADSK): Unstoppable Margin Expansion and Growing AEC Adoption as Key Long-Term Catalysts – What’s the Impact, Outlook & Key Competitive & Strategic Levers?
Autodesk (ADSK) reported strong Q3 FY25 results, with revenue of $1.57 billion (+11% YoY, +$6.24M beat) and adjusted EPS of $2.17 (+$0.05 beat), supported by robust growth in the AEC segment (+11% YoY) and billings (+28%). Recurring revenue remained stable at 97%, while net revenue retention of 100%-110% reflects the company’s subscription model resilience. Key catalysts include growing adoption of AI-driven capabilities like generative design through Project Bernini and the potential upsell opportunities tied to large renewal cohorts in 2024. Although transitioning to a new transactional model introduced near-term billing noise, Autodesk’s leadership in AI innovation positions it ahead in monetizing high-value outcomes. Macro headwinds, such as inflation and the writer’s strike, weigh on short-term performance, but as these dissipate, Autodesk is expected to return to the higher end of its 10%-15% revenue growth target. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling confidence in margin expansion and sequentially stronger Q4 performance, bolstered by AEC demand and end-to-end cloud solutions. With a solid subscription foundation, leadership continuity, and operational discipline, Autodesk is poised for long-term growth. Can Autodesk sustain its leadership in AI and capitalize on AEC adoption to drive stronger growth, or will macroeconomic pressures and billing transitions limit near-term upside?
