Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
BP: Are Shareholder Returns at Risk Amid Falling Oil Prices? – Our Thesis to assessing Strategic Reversals, Financial Flexibility, and 2025 Catalysts
BP’s Q3 2024 results demonstrated solid operational performance, with revenue of $47.25 billion beating estimates by $2.22 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.83 exceeding expectations, despite GAAP EPS missing due to one-time charges. Upstream production rose 3% YTD, supported by operational reliability (>95%), while EV charging achieved 80% YoY growth, reflecting BP’s energy transition momentum. However, downstream challenges from weak European refining margins and soft liquids trading weighed on performance, though recovery is expected in 2025 as turnaround activities ease. Tailwinds include robust upstream growth through high-margin projects like Cascadia, Tiber, and GTA LNG, alongside competitive advantages in LNG contracts, EV charging, and biofuels. BP remains focused on delivering $2 billion in cost savings by 2026 and maintaining disciplined capital expenditures (~$16 billion). Shareholder returns remain under pressure as oil prices fall below the $80/barrel assumption supporting BP’s $14 billion buyback plan, with gearing rising to 23.3% amid weaker cash flow and delayed divestments. The February 2025 strategy update, potentially signaling reversals in hydrocarbon production cuts and low-carbon investment trims, could positively influence market sentiment. Can BP navigate falling oil prices and operational headwinds to sustain shareholder returns and reaffirm confidence in its energy transition strategy?
