Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Carlyle Group (CG): Navigating a Mixed Quarter—Is Capital Markets Momentum the Catalyst for Long-Term Earnings Power?
Carlyle Group's Q3 2024 results reflect solid operational execution and progress in its strategic pivot toward fee-driven growth. Normalized EPS of $0.95 exceeded expectations, supported by a 36% YoY increase in fee-related earnings (FRE), which reached a record $278 million. AUM grew 17% YoY to $447 billion, with strong performance across the credit and global wealth segments. However, legacy private equity funds, particularly CEP V and CP VII, continue to underperform, highlighting challenges in Carlyle’s flagship segment. The company’s growth in capital markets revenue (+80% YTD) and global wealth management (with nearly $2 billion in inflows) signals strong traction in higher-growth platforms, offsetting some weakness in the private equity segment. Carlyle raised $9 billion in Q3, putting the firm on track to meet its full-year fundraising target of $40 billion. Despite this, private equity performance continues to weigh on fundraising optics. Management has reaffirmed its FY 2024 FRE target, supported by upcoming fee activations. While overall growth is promising, legacy fund performance and fee revenue growth concerns temper near-term optimism. Given the firm’s mixed results and strategic shifts, will the momentum in capital markets and wealth management become the key catalyst for sustained earnings power and growth?
