Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Celsius Holdings (CELH): Distribution Gains Amid Heightened Competitive Pressures—Can Pricing Power, Pepsi Alignment and Channel Expansion Sustain Growth?
Celsius Holdings delivered a mixed Q3 FY24, with revenue of $265.7M missing estimates by $1.79M due to a $124M inventory optimization at its largest distributor, while retail sell-through rose 7.3% YoY, contributing 16% to category growth versus the overall category’s 2%. International revenue growth of 37% YoY and strong performance in foodservice channels (+46% YoY in lodging, +27% YoY in restaurants) offset pressures, but profitability metrics reflected near-term challenges. Adjusted EPS of -$0.00 missed by $0.01, and gross margins contracted to 46% (from 50.4% YoY), impacted by promotional allowances and the PepsiCo incentive program. Adjusted EBITDA declined sharply to $4.4M from $103.6M YoY due to temporary financial impacts, though YTD EBITDA margins of 18.8% signal resilience heading into 2025. Strategic growth levers include attracting new consumers through flavor innovations (e.g., Vibe and Essentials lines), international expansion into Australia, New Zealand, and the U.K., enhanced operational efficiency via Big Beverages’ acquisition, and deepened retail execution with PepsiCo. Near-term headwinds include inventory misalignments ($15M potential Q4 variability), increased sugar-free category competition, and convenience channel traffic softness. Looking ahead, shelf resets, international partnerships, and national campaigns are expected to drive household penetration and trial. Can Celsius sustain premium growth and market leadership amid competitive pressures and evolving distribution dynamics?
