Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Choice Hotels International (CHH): Extended-Stay Leadership Powers Growth, But Can It Mitigate Domestic RevPAR Pressures- What’s the Impact, Outlook & Its 6 Key Catalysts?
Choice Hotels delivered a mixed Q3 2024, with Adjusted EBITDA growing 14% YoY to $178M and EPS of $2.23 beating estimates by $0.32, but revenue of $427.96M missing by $3.98M due to softening leisure travel demand and RevPAR declining 2.5% YoY. Despite near-term headwinds, CHH’s strategic pivot toward revenue-intensive segments continues to gain traction. Its pipeline of 110,000 rooms—99% in high-value brands—reflects a deliberate focus on upscale and extended-stay growth, with brands like Cambria and WoodSpring Suites benefiting from secular demand tailwinds such as reshoring and infrastructure investment. Extended-stay unit growth has exceeded 10% YoY for five consecutive quarters, while international expansion (e.g., Zenitude in France and Radisson in Latin America) supports incremental earnings diversification. Ancillary revenue streams, including co-branded credit cards (+9% YoY) and procurement services, further enhance resilience beyond RevPAR-dependent income. While elevated competition in upscale and key-money pressures weigh on margins, management’s raised 2024 guidance for EBITDA ($590–$600M) and EPS ($6.70–$6.87) reflects confidence in operational momentum. With muted industry supply growth and pricing power intact, CHH appears structurally positioned for long-term profitability. As Q4 RevPAR trends, pipeline conversion updates, and 2025 guidance unfold, can CHH sustain its leadership in extended stay and upscale segments while addressing domestic demand normalization?
