Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Church & Dwight (CHD): Slowing Growth and Competitive Pressures Challenge Premium Valuation-What’s the Impact, Outlook, and its 5 key competitive & Strategic Levers?
Church & Dwight delivered a solid Q3 2024 performance, exceeding expectations with revenue of $1.51 billion (+4.3% organic growth) and adjusted EPS of $0.79, beating by $0.12, driven by 3.1% U.S. volume growth and 60 bps gross margin expansion to 45%. Strength in power brands like THERABREATH (+400 bps YoY share gain in U.S. mouthwash), HERO (57% acne patch share), and BATISTE (46% dry shampoo share) reinforced its innovation-driven strategy, with incremental new product sales contributing 2% of growth. International organic growth of 8.1% and Specialty Products growth of 7.5% further underscore structural resilience. However, challenges persist, including underperformance in Gummy Vitamins (-10% YoY consumption), leading to a $357M impairment, and intensifying promotional activity in the litter segment, which pressures margins despite ARM & HAMMER retaining 40% of share gains. Elevated marketing spend (11%+ of FY24 sales) and SAP implementation in FY25 could weigh on margins, even as full-year gross margin guidance improves to +110 bps. With low-single-digit category growth expected in Q4 and valuation stretched at 30x forward P/E, upside appears limited. Can Church & Dwight sustain its premium valuation by navigating category pressures, revitalizing vitamins, and leveraging global growth in power brands to drive long-term momentum?
