Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF): Coke, Cuts, and Contracts—$15/ton Cost Win Buys Time, But Can Fed Cuts Reignite the Steel Story?
Cleveland-Cliffs delivered a stronger-than-expected Q2F25 with adjusted EBITDA up $271M QoQ, driven by a $15/ton cost reduction—beating prior guidance for a $5/ton increase—alongside improved mix and volume leverage (shipments: 4.3Mt). Cost momentum was supported by coke self-sufficiency post-Stelco, internal redeployment of coke from Canada to U.S. mills, and the phaseout of high-cost third-party supply, tracking ahead of the $50/ton FY25 cost-out target. ASP rose $35/ton to $1,015, buoyed by CRU-linked contracts and resilient auto-linked pricing, with the Dec 9 termination of the slab deal with Arcelor expected to add ~$125M in quarterly EBITDA. Liquidity remains healthy at $2.7B, with management reaffirming debt repayment as the core capital allocation priority. Strategic levers, including a JPMorgan-led asset monetization process and the stainless investment at Coshocton, offer potential valuation unlocks and deeper OEM penetration, while underutilized auto mill lines provide EBITDA torque should demand improve. That said, Canadian headwinds persist amid import-driven pricing pressure, and broader reacceleration depends on U.S. auto recovery—a function of Fed policy easing. With vertical integration, cost control, and balance sheet strength well in place, can Cleveland-Cliffs convert execution gains into a rerating catalyst if rate cuts reignite steel-intensive domestic manufacturing demand?
