CrowdStrike (CRWD): How We Had Foreseen the Rally, To 6 Key Catalysts That Lie Ahead?

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

CrowdStrike (CRWD) achieved a milestone in Q3 FY25, surpassing $1 billion in revenue (+29% YoY) and growing ARR to $4.02 billion (+27% YoY), reflecting strong demand for its cybersecurity solutions. Adjusted EPS of $0.93 beat estimates by $0.12, while gross retention remained stable at over 97%, underscoring platform stickiness. Module adoption accelerated, with 66% of customers using five or more modules, and Falcon Flex drove $1.3 billion in deal value, highlighting demand for flexible, ROI-driven contracts. Innovation in AI-powered cybersecurity, including Next-Gen SIEM ARR growth (+150% YoY) and the Adaptive Shield acquisition, positions CrowdStrike to capture expanding cloud and AI opportunities. While sales cycles lengthened (~15% YoY), ARR growth is expected to reaccelerate in FY26, supported by increased Falcon Flex adoption, module penetration, and strategic acquisitions. The AWS partnership further enhances its leadership in securing AI and cloud workloads, aligning with secular growth trends. Despite headwinds from the July 19 incident impacting ARR by ~$25–$30 million, proactive customer retention strategies, strong gross margins (80% for subscriptions), and robust pipeline generation support long-term growth. We reiterate our Outperform rating, though shares appear marginally overvalued. Can CrowdStrike sustain ARR reacceleration and leverage its AI leadership to drive market share gains, or will elongated sales cycles and competitive pressures temper long-term growth?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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