Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
D.R. Horton (DHI): Sitting on the Sidelines or “Spring”ing Forward?-What’s the Impact & its 5 Key Competitive & Strategic Levers into Margins, Demand, and Market share Outlook !
D.R. Horton’s Q4 FY24 results highlight a resilient operating model and strong capital efficiency amid affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. The company generated $10 billion in revenue and $3.92 EPS, though both missed expectations, reflecting softer pricing and higher incentives. Net sales orders rose 1% YoY, but ASP declined 1% to $377,600, with gross margins contracting to 23.6%. Operational efficiencies, such as a one-month reduction in cycle times and a capital-light land strategy (76% of lots under contract), showcase adaptability, while a robust $7.6 billion liquidity position supports dividends and share repurchases. Forward guidance of $36–$37.5 billion revenue and 90,000–92,000 closings underscores flexibility to navigate a cautious macro backdrop. While favorable demographic trends and limited affordable housing supply present structural tailwinds, affordability remains a challenge, exacerbated by 30-year mortgage rates above 7% and high buyer hesitancy. Elevated incentives and lot cost inflation are expected to pressure margins in FY25. D.R. Horton’s diversified offerings, geographic breadth, and scale provide competitive advantages, but near-term growth hinges on a pivotal spring selling season to revive demand. Can D.R. Horton effectively leverage its operational efficiency and entry-level focus to drive volumes and sustain market share amid persistent affordability challenges and competitive pressures?
