Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
DaVita (DVA): Can 2025’s Promised Growth Offset Rising Debt Pressures and Dialyze Our Optimism?
DaVita’s Q3 2024 results reflected solid revenue growth of $3.26B (+5% YoY), exceeding estimates by $16.22M, but adjusted EPS of $2.59 missed expectations due to rising debt costs and flat treatment volumes. Revenue per treatment (RPT) rose 3.5%-4% YoY, driven by operational discipline, while Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) contributed sequential growth despite ongoing investment-phase losses. Home dialysis remains a key focus, with 15.5% penetration, though supply chain disruptions from Hurricane Helene and elevated mortality rates constrain near-term recovery. Management reaffirmed 2024 guidance, projecting $1.91–$2.01B adjusted operating income and $950M–$1.2B free cash flow, alongside a 3%-7% 2025 operating income growth outlook, reflecting normalization post-pandemic. Rising interest expenses, up 37% YoY, remain a structural headwind, compounded by supply constraints and regulatory uncertainty surrounding Medicare’s ESRD bundle. Tailwinds include RPT growth, easing center closure costs in 2025, and international expansion, particularly in Latin America. While DaVita demonstrates resilience through cost controls and operational agility, persistent headwinds temper near-term optimism, leading to a revised Hold rating. With rising debt pressures and flat U.S. treatment volumes, how can DaVita leverage its integrated care strategy and international opportunities to offset structural challenges and reignite long-term investor confidence?
