Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Duke Energy (DUK): Capital Acceleration Anchored by Regulatory Strength — What’s the Impact On Growth Targets, Outlook & its 5 Key Drivers ?
Duke Energy wrapped up 2024 with adjusted EPS of $5.90, in line with guidance despite hurricane-related cost pressures, while setting a 2025 EPS outlook of $6.17–$6.42 (~7% YoY growth), reinforcing confidence in its 5–7% long-term CAGR. Q4 results were mixed, with a modest adjusted EPS beat (+$0.01) but a GAAP miss (-$0.13) and a $294M revenue shortfall, highlighting cost normalization risks. Electric Utilities grew earnings on rate case benefits, though 2024 O&M deferrals create a 2025 headwind. Duke’s $83B five-year capital plan (+12% YoY) accelerates investment in dispatchable generation, transmission modernization, and system resiliency, with 2+ GW of new natural gas capacity and 1,500 MW of solar in Florida. Load growth is a key inflection point, projected to accelerate from 1.5–2% (2024–2026) to 3–4% by 2029, driven by advanced manufacturing and data center expansions. Equity issuances of $6.5B through 2029 (~1–1.5% dilution annually) support balance sheet stability, though funding remains a key variable. With shares trading near fair value, the market reflects Duke’s steady growth outlook. Can Duke maintain its regulatory-driven earnings trajectory while balancing capital intensity, execution risks, and evolving leadership dynamics?
