Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Eli Lilly’s $93B Obesity Gamble: Can It Tackle Inventory Strains and Catch Up to Novo Nordisk?
Eli Lilly's Q3 earnings underscore both the significant market potential and operational challenges surrounding its obesity treatments, Mounjaro and ZepBound. Despite strong demand signals, the company experienced a 6% revenue miss due to inventory de-stocking at the wholesaler level, leading to a sharp 15% decline in stock price. Management attributed the miss to inventory management issues rather than demand problems; however, this raises concerns about supply chain visibility. Compounded versions of weight-loss drugs pose additional risks, especially with competitors like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy gaining market share. To address these challenges, Lilly is investing $2 billion in manufacturing capacity and $4.5 billion in pipeline development, while also returning $1.6 billion to shareholders. Recent FDA approvals and promising data in Alzheimer's treatments further bolster the company's growth outlook. While Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance to $45.4-$46 billion, inventory volatility and competitive pressures remain risks. As the company prepares for a critical clinical trial against Wegovy, the key question is: Can Eli Lilly effectively navigate these operational hurdles and competitive dynamics to sustain its growth trajectory and maintain its valuation?
