Eli Lilly’s $93B Obesity Gamble: Can It Tackle Inventory Strains and Catch Up to Novo Nordisk?

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

Eli Lilly's Q3 earnings underscore both the significant market potential and operational challenges surrounding its obesity treatments, Mounjaro and ZepBound. Despite strong demand signals, the company experienced a 6% revenue miss due to inventory de-stocking at the wholesaler level, leading to a sharp 15% decline in stock price. Management attributed the miss to inventory management issues rather than demand problems; however, this raises concerns about supply chain visibility. Compounded versions of weight-loss drugs pose additional risks, especially with competitors like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy gaining market share. To address these challenges, Lilly is investing $2 billion in manufacturing capacity and $4.5 billion in pipeline development, while also returning $1.6 billion to shareholders. Recent FDA approvals and promising data in Alzheimer's treatments further bolster the company's growth outlook. While Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance to $45.4-$46 billion, inventory volatility and competitive pressures remain risks. As the company prepares for a critical clinical trial against Wegovy, the key question is: Can Eli Lilly effectively navigate these operational hurdles and competitive dynamics to sustain its growth trajectory and maintain its valuation?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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