Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): Facing Backlash Over Steep Morgage Score Price Hike- What’s the Impact on Market Position , Growth , Outlook & its Key catalysts ?
FICO’s Q4 FY24 results highlight robust operational performance, driven by 16% YoY revenue growth to $454M and a 27% increase in Scores revenue, fueled by a 95% surge in mortgage origination revenues. Non-GAAP EPS grew 30% YoY, while FY24 free cash flow reached a record $607M. Platform ARR expanded 31% YoY, aligning with the company’s SaaS growth strategy, but Software ACV bookings fell 10%, signaling near-term execution challenges. Despite strong FY25 guidance—15% YoY revenue growth and 20% EPS growth—macroeconomic uncertainties, elevated interest rates, and weak B2C Scores volumes (-2% YoY in FY24) weigh on near-term prospects. FICO’s aggressive mortgage score price hike, expected to boost 2025 revenue by 17%, underscores its pricing power but risks straining lender relationships. Continued innovation, including the FICO Score Mortgage Simulator and platform expansion, supports long-term growth potential, though delays in FICO Score 10T adoption pose hurdles. At ~78.9x forward EPS, valuation remains elevated, balancing strong fundamentals with macro risks. Catalysts to watch include mortgage lending trends, platform ARR growth, and Software ACV recovery. Strategic Question: Can FICO sustain its market dominance and growth trajectory while navigating pricing backlash, regulatory hurdles, and execution risks in its platform transition?
