Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
KeyCorp: Will Softer Regulation, M&A Upside, and a Steepening Yield Curve Redefine Profitability Post-Election-Assessing the Impact, Outlook & its 5 Key Catalysts ?
KeyCorp enters 2025 with tempered momentum, reflecting mixed Q3 results amid a challenging macroeconomic landscape. Revenue of $695M fell short by $913.02M, and adjusted EPS of -$0.47 missed by $0.69, highlighting ongoing cost pressures and weak operational leverage. However, management's reaffirmed guidance for 20% net interest income (NII) growth in 2025 and 6% fee income growth in 2024 underscores confidence in its strategic initiatives. Positive developments include a $15B RWA reduction, robust noninterest income contributing 40% of total revenue, and 20% growth in investment banking fees. Wealth management and payments showed resilience, while the CET1 ratio is projected to reach 12% by year-end 2025, providing optionality for future investments. Regulatory uncertainties tied to Basel III and macroeconomic risks remain headwinds, as do flat loan utilization (31%) and limited retention of raised client capital (17%). Potential tailwinds include Republican-led regulatory relief, M&A opportunities, and a steepening yield curve, which could enhance profitability and capital returns. While KeyCorp’s focus on expense control, cloud migration, and selective loan growth supports long-term scalability, execution risks persist. Can KeyCorp capitalize on favorable regulatory and macro shifts while navigating near-term challenges to unlock sustainable profitability and shareholder value?
