Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Knife River Corporation (KNF) Building Bridges to a 20% EBITDA Margin – Dynamic Pricing Strategy, M&A Momentum & its 4 Key Drivers Shaping the Future Outlook !
Knife River Corporation delivered record Q3 2024 revenue of $1.1 billion and gross profit of $273 million, driven by disciplined execution of its EDGE strategy and operational resilience across key regions. Segment EBITDA rose 6% YoY to $225 million, with a record 22.5% EBITDA margin reflecting disciplined pricing (+7.6% for aggregates) and margin-focused bidding. Tailwinds include 12% backlog growth in the Mountain region, sustained public infrastructure demand, and accretive M&A, with $130 million deployed year-to-date at attractive multiples (6-8x EBITDA). Strategic initiatives like dynamic pricing and PIT Crew operational efficiencies underpin confidence in achieving a 20% EBITDA margin target. However, near-term challenges, including a 5% decline in aggregates volumes, private market softness, and SG&A pressures from M&A and inflation, weigh on the outlook. Energy Services underperformance (-$12 million EBITDA) and private sector demand uncertainty amid high interest rates also pose risks. Long-term catalysts, such as robust DOT bid schedules, IIJA funding, and vertical integration from acquisitions like Albina Asphalt, support sustained growth potential. While Knife River’s strategic positioning is strong, stabilizing volumes and managing cost inflation will be critical. Can Knife River effectively balance near-term cost pressures with its disciplined growth strategy to unlock its next phase of EBITDA growth and shareholder value creation?
