Lucid Group (LCID): Gravity’s Launch as a Game-Changer – Will SUV Scale Unlock the Path to Profitability?

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

Lucid Group’s Q3 2024 results highlighted delivery growth and cost improvements but underscored ongoing challenges in scaling toward profitability. Record deliveries of 2,781 vehicles (+91% YoY) and revenue of $200.04M (+45% YoY) exceeded expectations, reflecting strong demand and strategic price adjustments for lower-trim Air models. Sequential gross margin improvement by 28 percentage points to -106% demonstrated progress in cost controls, aided by in-house production efficiencies, though high fixed costs and a $154.9M inventory impairment continue to pressure profitability. The Gravity SUV, slated for late 2024 production, represents a transformative opportunity, expanding Lucid’s TAM sixfold and positioning it competitively in the premium SUV market with a starting price of $79,900. Early customer interest signals strong potential, while the forthcoming Midsize platform (targeting late 2026) aims to address broader mass-market opportunities. Liquidity remains a strength, with a $1.75B capital raise extending the runway into 2026, providing flexibility for Gravity’s ramp and future investments. However, elevated cash burn ($613M adjusted EBITDA loss in Q3), price competition, and execution risks tied to scaling Gravity and launching the Midsize platform temper near-term optimism. Can Lucid successfully manage operational scaling and cost efficiency to transition Gravity into a profitable growth driver and unlock sustained value creation?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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