Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Match Group (MTCH): Post-Earnings Drop Raises Questions – Can Hinge Growth, Buybacks, and Core Focus Drive a Rebound?
Match Group's Q3 2024 results highlight mixed performance, with revenue rising 2% YoY to $881M, falling $5.44M short of expectations and reflecting transient challenges, particularly at Tinder. Normalized EPS of $0.79 met expectations, while GAAP EPS of $0.51 exceeded estimates, supported by strong AOI margins of 38%. Tinder saw 311,000 new payers and 4% RPP growth YoY, yet monthly active users fell 9%, and direct revenue declined 1% due to delays in a la carte feature rollouts and iOS acquisition softness. Conversely, Hinge delivered standout performance, with 36% YoY revenue growth driven by payer expansion (+21%) and RPP growth (+12%), reinforcing its scalability and profitability as it approaches $1B in revenue by 2025. Match repurchased $241M in shares, reflecting confidence in its long-term free cash flow, while live-streaming exits and ongoing portfolio rationalization enhance operational focus. However, flat Q4 revenue guidance and continued MAU pressures at Tinder highlight near-term headwinds. Investor Day in December offers a potential catalyst as management details strategic priorities. Can Match Group’s AI-driven innovation, Hinge’s robust scaling, and operational streamlining offset Tinder’s challenges and reignite sustainable growth?
