Moderna (MRNA): can their late stage pipeline translate to successful commercial products beyond vaccine and build strong compeve advantage ?

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

Moderna’s Q3 2024 results showcased strong financial performance with $1.86 billion in revenue, surpassing expectations by $615.03 million. However, the company faces significant challenges in the post-pandemic vaccine landscape, with declining COVID vaccine demand and disappointing RSV vaccine sales. Despite these setbacks, Moderna has successfully managed costs, reducing SG&A expenses by 36% and R&D spending by 2% YoY, while maintaining a gross margin of 72%. The company’s full-year 2024 revenue guidance of $3–$3.5 billion reflects a more cautious outlook, particularly given uncertainty in the U.S. vaccination dynamics and a slower-than-expected RSV recovery. Moderna’s late-stage pipeline, including next-generation COVID vaccines, combination vaccines, and the CMV vaccine, remains a key growth driver. With up to 10 product approvals expected by 2027, international manufacturing plants coming online by 2025, and a robust $9.2 billion cash position, the company is positioned for long-term growth. However, near-term uncertainties around COVID and RSV sales present risks. Can Moderna’s late-stage pipeline drive successful commercial products beyond vaccines, helping the company build a competitive advantage and stabilize earnings in the long term?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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