Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Moderna’s(MRNA) $9.5B Cash War Chest and Pipeline Bets—What’s the Impact , Outook & its Catalysts ?
Moderna’s Q4 and FY24 results reflect a company in transition, with revenue plunging 53% YoY to $3.2B as COVID-19 vaccine sales ($3.1B) continued their structural decline amid shifting market dynamics and intensifying competition. Q4 revenue of $966M beat estimates, but EPS of -$2.91 missed as lower sales and increased R&D spend pressured margins. The launch of RSV vaccine mRESVIA generated only $25M in Q4 sales, reinforcing the early-stage adoption hurdles in a competitive space. Despite a $3.6B net loss, Moderna maintained its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.5B–$2.5B, with key inflection points tied to FDA decisions on next-gen COVID (May 31), RSV (June 12), and its COVID-flu combination vaccine. With a $9.5B cash balance, Moderna retains flexibility to fund its late-stage pipeline, including CMV (Phase III readout 2025), norovirus (Phase II update pending clinical hold resolution), and mRNA-4157, its high-stakes individualized neoantigen therapy co-developed with Merck, set for a 2027 launch pending Phase III melanoma data in 2026. While cost cuts ($5.5B target in 2025) provide a buffer, regulatory uncertainties under new HHS leadership and execution risks in manufacturing scale-up weigh on sentiment. Can Moderna successfully pivot from its pandemic-driven revenue base into a sustainable multi-product pipeline leader, or will declining COVID sales and near-term commercialization hurdles limit its upside?
