Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Nu Holdings: Ecosystem Expansion Anchored by Secured Lending and Digital Innovation—Will It Redefine Margin Stability and Growth Pathways Over the Coming 3 Years?
Nu Holdings delivered strong Q3 2024 results, with revenue up 56% YoY (FX-neutral) to $2.94 billion, driven by robust customer growth (+23% YoY to 110 million), a 25% YoY rise in ARPAC to $11, and increased customer engagement, with 60% now using Nu as their primary bank. Adjusted EPS of $0.12 and a 19% net income margin highlight operational efficiency, while cost-to-serve remained steady at $0.80 per customer. Growth was broad-based, with Brazil remaining a core driver and Mexico and Colombia accelerating significantly, contributing $3.9 billion and $900 million in deposits, respectively. Mature customer cohorts demonstrate a promising monetization trajectory, achieving $25 in monthly ARPAC, while new verticals like NuCel, NuPay, and NuMarketplace diversify revenues beyond credit products. Lending portfolios expanded by 97% YoY, with secured loans comprising 27% of the mix, supporting balanced growth despite NIM compression (-140 bps QoQ) to 18.4% due to higher funding costs and a shift toward secured loans. Near-term catalysts include deposit repricing initiatives in Mexico, accelerating lending in Colombia, and scaling non-financial verticals. With shares trading at 21.96x NTM forward P/E, Nu’s growth and profitability remain compelling, but can its ecosystem-driven model redefine margin stability and sustain its growth momentum over the next three years?
