Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures
Republic Services (RSG): Market Extrapolating Record Margins — 4 Strategic Catalysts Shaping Pricing Trends, Acquisition & Digital Growth for Competitive Positioning!
Republic Services delivered a solid Q3 2024, with 7% revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA increasing 14%, and a 210-basis-point margin expansion, showcasing strong cost management and pricing discipline. Adjusted EPS of $1.81 beat by $0.20, though revenue of $4.08B missed by $43M due to cyclical headwinds in construction and special waste volumes. Core price growth of 6.2% and open market pricing of 9.1% underscore Republic's pricing leadership, while stable 94% customer retention validates its operational resilience. The company’s strategic initiatives, including its fleet management system Empower, are on track to deliver $20M in annual savings by 2025, while sustainability investments in Blue Polymers and RNG are expected to generate $75M in revenue and $30–$35M in EBITDA in 2025, reflecting accretive, high-margin opportunities. Management projects mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with EBITDA and free cash flow outpacing top-line expansion, supported by disciplined pricing and M&A synergies. However, risks include volume softness in cyclical end markets and normalization of Q3 one-time benefits, requiring careful monitoring. With a robust capital allocation strategy and secular tailwinds in sustainability and digital transformation, Republic is well-positioned for long-term growth. Can Republic sustain its pricing power and operational efficiencies to mitigate macro pressures and extend its competitive edge in 2025?
