The Walt Disney Company (DIS): How We Had Foreseen the Rally, To Catalysts That Lie Ahead? – What’s the Impact, Outlook & Next for Streaming Profitability & Growth ?

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Disney concluded fiscal 2024 with strong financial performance, delivering 3% revenue growth and a 21% rise in operating profit, driven by solid execution in its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment and its Parks, Experiences, and Products division. The DTC segment, led by Disney+ and Hulu, saw total subscriptions reach 174 million, with a notable shift toward the ad-supported model, driving ARPU growth. This, along with management’s confidence in achieving double-digit margins by FY2026, positions streaming profitability as a key growth driver. Disney’s content engine, highlighted by strong box office hits and a robust film slate, underpins its competitive advantage. Parks and Experiences are also poised for growth, though near-term pressures from weather and international softness could impact Q1 performance. Additionally, Disney’s strategy to reposition ESPN and its upcoming DTC sports service provides a growth lever, offsetting declines in linear networks. Despite challenges in linear advertising and distribution, Disney’s targeted investments, particularly in its DTC and parks segments, are expected to deliver significant returns starting in FY2026. With high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in FY2025 and accelerating to double digits thereafter, Disney’s long-term outlook remains strong. The key question is: Can Disney continue to execute its streaming transformation, scale profitability in DTC, and capitalize on the upcoming ESPN DTC launch while navigating ongoing media sector challenges?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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