U.S. Steel (X): Acquisition or Not, What’s Its Worth on a Standalone Basis? Our Perspective on Growth & Valuation- M&A

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

U.S. Steel (X) is navigating a turbulent environment, facing both opportunities and significant risks. The proposed $14.9 billion acquisition by Nippon Steel is under heavy scrutiny from U.S. regulators and politicians, raising concerns about national security and American jobs. While the deal promises crucial investment to modernize U.S. Steel's operations, it also presents significant uncertainty. Should the deal fail, U.S. Steel could face operational downsizing, including plant closures. However, if approved, the company stands to benefit from Nippon Steel’s investments, ensuring its competitive position in the global market. Operationally, U.S. Steel’s Q2 2024 earnings reflected a soft market, with net earnings dropping to $183 million from $477 million in Q2 2023. Adjusted EBITDA of $443 million marked sequential improvement, driven by cost management and a stronger product mix. Despite challenges in demand and pricing, key strategic projects like Big River 2 and improving efficiency across Flat-Rolled segments point to potential growth. Given these dynamics, U.S. Steel’s standalone value remains solid, particularly with its cost controls and strategic investments. With shares trading below intrinsic value due to uncertainty, is now the time to accumulate U.S. Steel shares for future growth? We delve into Major Drivers, Our perpective & follow up to our Initiation of Coverage :Earnings Review, Forecasts,DCF, Valuation, Peer Analysis, ESG & Risks

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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