Union Pacific (UNP): Turning the Page to Stronger Tracks With Focus on Efficency & Service –What’s the impact, outlook & its 5 key competitive & strategic levers ?

$50.00 — or $120.00 / year

Union Pacific (UNP) delivered a strong Q4 2024, with adjusted EPS of $2.98 exceeding expectations by $0.19, supported by a 5% increase in operating income, despite revenue of $6.12 billion missing estimates by $27.75 million. Operational efficiency was a key highlight, with the adjusted operating ratio improving 220 basis points to 58%, demonstrating disciplined cost management. Full-year results reflected robust execution, with OR improving 240 basis points to 59.9%, return on invested capital rising to 15.8%, and free cash flow nearly doubling to $2.8 billion. Segment-wise, premium volumes grew 13%, driven by strong international intermodal demand, while industrial volumes remained steady and bulk faced coal-related headwinds, partially offset by strength in grain exports. Looking ahead, management projects high-single to low-double-digit EPS growth in 2025, driven by pricing initiatives, volume gains, and productivity improvements, with CapEx flat at $3.4 billion. Key growth levers include expansion in renewable diesel traffic, new coal contracts, and intermodal capacity enhancements in strategic regions. However, near-term risks stem from declining coal demand, potential intermodal softness, and cost inflation. Can Union Pacific sustain its efficiency-driven growth trajectory and capitalize on structural demand drivers to achieve long-term operational excellence?

Table of Contents :
• Stock Rating & Target Price
• Investment Thesis
• Fundamental Models Used
• Company Description
• Corporate Timeline
• Key Metrics (KPI ) and Recently Reported Earnings Review
• Business Highlights, Strategic Announcements & Outlook
• Quarter-over-Quarter (Q-o-Q) and Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) Growth Analysis
• Key Catalysts Driving Growth
• Historical Financial Statement Analysis & CAGR Trends
• Quarterly Key Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics
• Annual Financial Performance Analysis: Horizontal and Vertical Financial Analysis, Trends
• Financial Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts: Income Statement
• Annual Forecasts: Cash Flow Statements
• Net Debt Levels
• A Closer Look at DCF: Our Assumptions and Methodology
• Terminal Value Calculation
• Target Price Analysis
• Valuation Multiples
• Supplementary Valuation Analysis: Multiples Approach
• Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case , Bull Case ,Bear Case
• Holistic Peer Review & Trading Comps: Financial Data, Operational Metrics, and Valuation Multiples
• Implied Price Per Share
• Ownership Activity/ Insider Trades
• Ownership Summary
• An analysis of ESG Risk Rating
• Key Professionals
• Key Board Members
• Key Risks Considerations
• Analyst Ratings
• Analyst Industry Views
• Disclosures

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